China is expected to account for 48 percent of the global electronic vehicle (EV) market by 2025, with 4.8 million units in sales, according to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance cited by China Daily.
China’s market share will drop through 2040 to 26%, with sales of 14.6 million units, but it will nevertheless remain the largest EV market in the world, the forecast says.
The report estimates EV sales to grow from 2 million in 2018 to 28 million in 2030 and 56 million in 2040. Sales for traditional energy cars, meanwhile, are forecasted to drop from 85 million in 2018 to 42 million in 2040.
Strong policy support for EVs in China is one factor driving growth. Starting in 2012, the country’s State Council laid out a plan that aimed at selling 5 million EVs and producing 2 million units by 2020. This has been followed by a string of subsidies to support the industrialization of China’s EV industry.
Another driver of growing EV sales is decreasing prices: The report expects EVs and traditional cars will reach price parity by the mid-2020s because of declining lithium battery prices. Lithium battery prices fell more than 85% from 2010 to 2018, with an average annual decline rate of 20%, which is expected to continue over the next few years.
In Q1 2019, global EV sales passed 500,000 units, a 58% year-on-year increase. China accounted for almost half of the sales.